The Valero, Texas. Now the replacement for what used to be the Houston Open race to the masters. This week sees 144 players in the field with approx 140 of those players needing a win this week to get into Augusta next week. Winds are predicted at the weekend (thank god) which turns this wide open course from a glorified putting competition to a ball flight and spin control competition, adding nuance, but also difficulty, to the course and to picking the winner.
A promise to all readers of this blog, if the Matchplay ever returns (and given the drama and entertainment last week it has to), this writer will not be putting up anyone. I had a shortlist of 5. My 3 picks all failed to qualify, my 4th fancy withdrew (Matsuyama) and Cantlay somehow managed to throw a 2 shot lead away at the death losing to the eventual winner. I even back Scheffler in play, proving that when it comes to matchplay, my money can stop anyone! It's too big a lottery, but what an event it was, the semi finals, were amongst the most gripping golf I've seen in quite some time.
So San Antonio, Valero, Texas. A 7243 yard par 72. A wide open space, for bombers and putters unless the wind blows. Expect low scores Thursday, with Friday and Saturday's wind blunting the scores with 20mph expected, but 20mph in the open plains of Texas is every inch of that.
As mentioned only the winner can qualify this week (apart from those already in next week's Augusta field), so the winner, for me, could be an outsider, as the double pressures of winning on tour and a trip to Mecca beckons, and maybe not knowing the pressure and getting a score on the board on Sunday will see a finish similar to that at the Valspar where the final group pairings had almost no chance. Good putters, and good wind players are needed and I'm 30pts, 6 players this week, in need of a couple of places or the winner, to make up for a poor month. These things do go in fits and starts, but last year proved that patience and maintaining smaller stakes keep us in the black for that next big win.
This was a tough task reducing some juicy prices this week, but I've tried to pick contenders against value this week, a slight change to the hybrid method I usually go for. It is a strange week, with so many people wanting that one spot.
First up is last week's winner MATT WALLACE. After 5 missed cuts, Matt has bounced back to form with a decent showing in the Honda, missed cut at Sawgrass by one shot, 7th in the Valspar and then a win last week in Puntacana. Matt was a stellar player on the European Tour (as it was) with 4 wins, 3 of which came in 2018. He was a 6 time winner on the Alps tour before that in 2016, with 3 wins in 4 weeks, and despite a strong start on the PGA tour in 2019, with a 30th place in the Players and 3rd place in the PGA Championship, injury, doubt and Covid have blunted his progress. The strength of his game lies in approach play, and his ability to play in the wind, with the win last week, and his multiple event wins (11 professional wins since 2016) make him a live chance. Unbelievably most bookies are offering 40/1 this week, So I am 4pts e/w 8 places 40/1 with Skybet.
The putting edge leads me into my next pick, and the sweet putting but questionable under pressure CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT is the next pick. He was always on the radar for this event, he putts so beautifully, and the South African is used to playing in heat and wind. He is a winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links, and a weaker field like this, on a course like this, is right in his wheelhouse, if he can hold himself together under pressure. On these large greens, in the wind, long distance putting and lag putting is going to be so important, and he is probably the best (ranked 3rd however) lag putter on tour. He's had his usual middling year on tour, but an 11th place at the Players, is all the recent form I need to think this is the week for a strong showing. 50/1 top 8 with Hills, 3pts e/w.
The biggy is up next, the 1pt each way burn your buck pick, but this week I'm happy to finally put up BEN TAYLOR. Big Ben has recently moved to the States and has form in Texas, with a 3rd place in the Houston Open in the wrap around start to the season. He putts beautifully, and I got to see a lot of him at the Honda. For a while he looked like a live chance of winning, but the occasion seemed to get the better of him and he finished 5th after a weak back 9 on the Sunday. The glimpses he showed on the Saturday and on the front 9 on the Sunday, told me had the game to win something like this, but with his iron play and flat stick, San An will really suit him, and at 150/1 top 8 with Skybet I'm 1pt e/w.
Next up is the winning machine that is the sweet swinging New Zealander RYAN FOX. Fox is already in the Masters so is playing with the handbrake off, he's a perennial winner in the wind in Queensland and Perth and he is another Dunhill Links winner. He doesn't play much on the PGA tour, but he joined the Florida swing at Bayhill with a 14th place finish in a stellar field in the wind, then 27th at the Players in similar conditions staying on well after a poor start to that event. At 36 he's in the form of his life and his weakness with the Big Dog won't be an issue round here. He could well be a winner, but at 45/1 top 8 with Hills I'm investing in a minimum place and I'm 3.5pts e/w.
Next up we have a guy who I said would break his cuts missed stat 2 weeks ago, but having failed, he then went on to a 13th place finish last week in Puntacana. NICK HARDY is up there with Hatton and Fowler in approach play, and in a week where iron play is going to be all important, and control of the golf ball in the wind, this Illinois state player knows what it takes, with it being one of the windiest states in the US and a state responsible for 10% of wind power across North America. He's a hunch pick this week and at 90/1 top 8 with Skybet I'm 2pts e/w.
Last up we have a new comer to the blog. Again leaning on the approach play angle, coupled with some lovely form this year, the wirey AKSHAY BHATIA gets the nod. He sits 11th Strokes gained approach on tour, and in all starts this year on his rookie year, the 21 year old Californian is 17, 45, 49, 2nd, MC and last week was 24th. He hasn't been going toe to toe with the top players, and in a weaker field this week with so many players fighting for that one spot at the Masters I fancy him to put up a good show. I don't see him winning (although that's not to say he can't) but I'm happy to take 100/1 8 places Skybet 1.5pts e/w.
In Summary
Matt Wallace 40/1 8 places Skybet 4pts e/w
Bezuidenhout 50/1 8 places Hills 3pts e/w
Ben Taylor 150/1 top 8 Skybet 1pt e/w
Ryan Fox 45/1 top 8 Hills 3.5pts e/w
Nick Hardy 90/1 top 8 Skybet 2pts e/w
Akshay Bhatia 100/1 top 8 Skybet 1.5pts e/w
Good luck
TEWT