Just one more week before the players head across to the East Coast, and what has been traditionally the start of the blog in real earnest. Apart from Pebble it's been feast or famine on the West Coast and 2 disappointing weeks was compounded by Wyndham Clark's inability to putt and Daniel Berger missing chances a plenty over the weekend which could have seen him contend. A very enjoyable week at Torrey though and Ludvig Aberg announced himself as one of the big 4 for this season, and because of that a compressed market at the top end may give us more value in our price range, let's see how that pans out.
A 4th trip to Vidanta Vallarta for the PGA tour this week, and after Jake Knapp decimated the field last year, it could be another maiden win out there, as a poor field flies South for some warm weather, mild winds and no rain to soak in this exemplary 5 star resort, and a Par 71 7436 Yard layout, it's a beauty. Wide open fairways, clever bunkering and severe undulations are the test this week, and if they have it firm they can keep the score below 20 under. It suits strong iron players and where there are elevations, high ball hitters and we start off by swearing at the odds compilers as my main pick this week has come out as fav and at 12/1 I'm not willing to put up Akshay Bhatia, but well done the bookies, they've actually got this right for once.
4 players and back to 30pts after the 40 lost last week, we start with no surprises and no deep thought as defending champ and on form JAKE KNAPP has been left with a lot of juice in his price. He is a pure striker, a rhythm player and despite last week being somewhere that would not suit him, he still played excellently and if he hits fairways he could spread eagle this field once again. He is an inexplicably large 33/1 in a dogshit field this week and we go 8 places with Hills and 7pts e/w on our So-Cal dude and one of my faves.
A first for the blog this week, we have 2 South Africans selected, and we start with Korn Ferry Tour Graduate and baby faced, fat baby, ALDRICH POTGIETER. Whoooooo you ask? Potgieter was 29th on the Korn Ferry list last year, he had a win in the Bahamas and at just 20 years of age the big hitting, great putting, gun-ho style this lad brings to the game is raw, but exciting. For a Saffa he has fucking appalling hands, his short game is absolute arse and if brains were dynamite he wouldn't have enough to blow his Titleist hat off, but he wont be hitting many long irons in this week and he is very very long, and accurate with the big dog. At 60/1 he's worth a small punt so 3pts e/w on him this week with Hills is the play.
If there was more of an opposite player this week then it is his countryman THRISTON LAWRENCE who is next on our roster. Lawrence came to light at last years Open at Troon, but he was not a secret on the European tour. 4 times a winner, a brilliant ball striker, his iron play and sweet hands are to be admired greatly, and this 28 year old has the game here to cope with the rolling hills and undulations to greens sitting high above and well below the eyeline. This is his first year in the US proper, and he has missed the cut by a mile at the Farmers and in Phoenix, but he's 100/1 he knows how to win, and this place does have a desert feel, and they play plenty in Saudi, Qatar, Oman etc on the DP World. So he is a 2pt e/w play with hills at 100/1 this week, again 8 places.
Last up we go raw talent again, and although he wasn't in my thinking to start, the likes of Rodgers, Kim, Jaeger and Rai had no value in them so a slightly out of form MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN is our final selection. He has been strangely out of form off the tee and on the greens thus far, some promise at Torrey Pines before the weather blew him just outside the cut mark, 2 good rounds at the Amex and then a shocker, and a midfield showing in Phoenix have been an underwhelming start. In this field, on this course however, he is a live wire for me. Bet365 have left 75/1 out there 8 places, and this big gun gets our last 3pts e/w, in the hope he comes back to being the player he ended the season as last year.
With the Cognizent (formerly the Honda) up next week, play it safe this week, as there will be bigger fish to fry, but let's hope for some Sunday entertainment with this young line up, enjoy and always gamble responsibly.
TEWT
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